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Two counts of the same year

Two Census programs offer different measures related to job endings and employment contraction at young firms.

The Quarterly Workforce Indicators (QWI) are built from state unemployment insurance wage records. They count jobs, quarter by quarter, and record a separation whenever a job present in one quarter is absent in the next. Census defines it exactly: “A separation is indicated when a job is present in one quarter, but is not present in the following quarter.” It also warns what the count cannot do: “Voluntary separations (retirement, new job) and involuntary separations (layoff, firing) cannot be separately identified.”

The Business Dynamics Statistics (BDS) are the Census program used here for job destruction and jobs lost at closing establishments. They count jobs lost from contracting and closing establishments during the last 12 months. Census defines the measure as “Job destruction is the sum of all employment losses from contracting establishments from year t–1 to year t including establishments shutting down.” The data service labels the subset from closures as “Number of jobs lost from closing establishments during the last 12 months”.

Both programs classify by firm age. In the BDS, “The age of the parent firm is based on the age of the oldest establishment in the firm, in the year the firm came into existence, and does not change in subsequent years as a result of establishment entry or exit.” In the QWI, “Firm age and size are defined at the national level, rather than the state level.” This study takes the youngest group each program offers that lines up with the other: QWI firm age 0 to 1 years, and BDS ages 0 and 1 combined.

The registered side-by-side

All industries, private employers, QWI quarters 1 to 4 of 2023 and BDS data year 2023, covering 48 states and the District of Columbia (every jurisdiction for which both programs returned usable figures, since Alaska and Michigan returned no QWI data).

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Quarterly Workforce Indicators, state files, 2023 Q1 to Q4, private ownership, all industries, not seasonally adjusted, firm age groups 1 and 5. Business Dynamics Statistics, state by firm age, 2023, age codes 0 years, 1 year and 11+ years. Both retrieved from the Census data service on October 4, 2026 and archived before the protocol was frozen.

The QWI rate is the year’s separations (5,212,670 at firms aged 0 to 1) divided by the average over the four quarters of jobs held at the start of a quarter (4,027,491). It can exceed 100 without any error in the data, because the numerator is an annual count of separations and the denominator is the average beginning-of-quarter job count. The BDS rate is jobs destroyed (611,207) divided by the Census denominator for the age group (3,625,836), which is the average of employment in the current and prior year. Of those destroyed jobs, 345,091 were at establishments that closed.

Nothing is subtracted. The two rates count different events (a worker-job relationship ending, as against gross year-to-year employment loss at contracting and closing establishments), on different denominators (average beginning-of-quarter employment, as against average current- and prior-year employment), with different timing (the quarter a job ended, as against a year-to-year comparison), and with firm age set on different program schedules (QWI reports its 0 to 1 group for each quarter, while BDS determines firm age annually from the year the firm came into existence, using the age of its oldest establishment), so matching the calendar year, the age labels and the jurisdictions does not make the two observations one cohort. There is also a known asymmetry between them: QWI separations are built from unemployment insurance wage records and can be unobserved for a firm’s final quarter, so observed QWI separations at exiting firms may be understated, while BDS job destruction from deaths is designed to include employment losses from closing establishments. That affects how the two columns should be read beside each other. It does not make them parts of one total, and no remainder between them is reported here.

By sector

The same three measures by sector appear below for firms aged 0 to 1 and, as the prespecified contrast, for firms aged 11 years or more. Each row uses the jurisdictions where QWI returned usable figures for that sector in every quarter and BDS returned the matching annual cells. Sectors with fewer than 40 jurisdictions are marked as limited coverage.

Firms aged 11 years or more, by sector, on the same construction. Where a sector’s jurisdiction count differs between the two age tables (mining 32 against 48, utilities 27 against 49, management of companies 42 against 49), the two age rows rest on different jurisdiction sets and are not comparable with each other across age. The all-industries rows and every sector at the same count in both tables are on the same set.

The sector columns do not move together. Information had one of the lower QWI separation rates, at 96.0 separations per 100 beginning-of-quarter jobs, and the second-highest BDS job destruction rate, at 23.6 jobs destroyed per 100 jobs on the Census annual denominator, behind only management of companies. Finance and insurance had the second-highest QWI separation rate, at 244.0 separations per 100 beginning-of-quarter jobs, and the sixth-highest BDS job destruction rate, at 20.7 jobs destroyed per 100 jobs on the Census annual denominator. A reader looking for the sectors where young firms “churn the most” will get a different list from each column, which is the point of showing both.

What the numbers mean for an operator

These are descriptive aggregates for the stated federal-data population. They do not identify causal effects, diagnose an individual company, or estimate the result of adopting a practice. The guidance that follows is operating judgment, not a finding from the data.

For an operator, the two 49-jurisdiction aggregate figures identify different things to monitor. QWI records worker-job separations of every kind, which it cannot sort into quits, layoffs, firings or exit-related losses. BDS records gross year-to-year employment losses at establishments that contracted or closed. In the BDS aggregate, job destruction equaled about 17 per 100 jobs on the Census annual denominator, and more than half of that was at establishments that closed. As operating judgment, the first figure points at hiring and retention, which an owner can measure monthly, and the second at survival and sizing, which an owner can also track internally. The data cannot say how much of the first is connected to the second, and this article does not estimate it.

How to handle it: keep two ledgers

The steps below are an operating recommendation. This study did not test them, and the Census Bureau does not endorse them.

1. Track worker-job endings and establishment employment reductions separately. Record worker-job endings throughout the year and, separately, compare establishment employment over a consistent annual period. The first is an internal counterpart to QWI separations, and the second is an internal counterpart to BDS job destruction. Neither internal count is the federal measure, and a company that tracks only period-end headcount sees neither clearly.

2. Use 129.4 as aggregate context, not a company forecast. Across firms aged 0 to 1 in the 49-jurisdiction frame, annual QWI separations equaled 129.4 per 100 average beginning-of-quarter jobs. The aggregate does not show what a particular company, or a firm in its first year alone, should expect. As operating judgment, a budget that assumes a stable team in the first two years is assuming something the aggregate does not show for young firms in general.

3. Read the sector column that matches the decision. For a hiring plan, the separations column. For a question about whether the business model is holding, the job destruction column. The two rank sectors differently, so the right comparison depends on the question.

4. Measure the first ninety days of each job. The QWI count includes jobs that started and ended inside a single quarter. Whether a company’s separations are concentrated there is something its own records can show and the public data cannot. Employment decisions, including terminations and reductions in force, carry legal obligations that vary by jurisdiction, so an owner should take them with qualified legal and HR advice.

What this data does not tell you

• It does not separate quits from layoffs or from jobs lost when firms close (QWI), and it does not say why an establishment contracted or closed (BDS).
• It does not show what share of separations came from job destruction. The two measures cannot be subtracted, and no such figure is reported here.
• Both are national firm-age classifications applied to state records, and the sector tables cover different jurisdiction sets.
• QWI values are protected with noise and carry status flags. Only values flagged 1 (OK) or 6 (calculated from other released measures, no significant distortion) were used, and Census publishes no sampling error for either program.
• QWI separations can be unobserved in a firm’s final quarter, so separations at exiting firms may be undercounted.

Method

Already published by the agency: Census publishes QWI separations and employment by firm age and state every quarter, and BDS job destruction, job destruction from deaths and the denominator by firm age, state and sector every year. New here: the two programs built on matched jurisdiction frames for one year (one 49-jurisdiction frame for all industries, a complete-case frame for each sector) and reported beside each other at firms aged 0 to 1 and 11 or more.

Sources. U.S. Census Bureau, Quarterly Workforce Indicators via the Census data service (qwi/sa), 2023 quarters 1 to 4, private ownership (A05), all industries and each two-digit sector, firm age groups 1 (“0-1 Years”) and 5 (“11+ Years”), not seasonally adjusted, indicators Emp (“Beginning-of-Quarter Employment: Counts”) and Sep (“Separations: Counts”) with their status flags. U.S. Census Bureau, Business Dynamics Statistics via the Census data service, 2023, state by firm age and state by sector by firm age, age codes 010 (“0 years”), 020 (“1 year”) and 075 (“11+ years”), variables JOB_DESTRUCTION, JOB_DESTRUCTION_DEATHS and DENOM. All responses retrieved October 4, 2026 and archived before the protocol was frozen.

Frames. A jurisdiction is in a frame when its four QWI cells for that age group and industry carry status 1 or 6 on both Emp and Sep, and its BDS row(s) carry the three variables. The all-industries frame is 49 jurisdictions: every state except Alaska and Michigan, plus the District of Columbia. Each sector has its own frame, with counts in the table. Sectors at 49 use that same set. For firms aged 0 to 1, agriculture lacks the District of Columbia (48). Mining (32) lacks Connecticut, Delaware, the District of Columbia, Hawaii, Iowa, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Hampshire, New Jersey, North Carolina, Oregon, Rhode Island, South Dakota and Vermont. Utilities (27) lacks Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, the District of Columbia, Hawaii, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Maine, Mississippi, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Vermont, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin and Wyoming. Management of companies (42) lacks Delaware, Hawaii, New Mexico, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Vermont and Wyoming. For firms aged 11 or more, agriculture and mining lack the District of Columbia (48) and every other sector is at 49.

Rates. QWI: the sum of separations over four quarters and frame jurisdictions, divided by the mean over the four quarters of beginning-of-quarter employment summed over the frame, times 100. BDS: job destruction summed over frame jurisdictions and the age codes, divided by the summed denominator, times 100, and the same for job destruction from closures.

Protocol. The age mapping, frame rule, measures and the rule that no difference or ratio between the programs is computed were frozen in a dated protocol on October 4, 2026, after the source responses had been archived with hashes and before the registered quantities were computed. Before freezing, the QWI status flags and the Census API’s structure had been inspected, and national BDS rows by firm age, including 2023 national job destruction rates by firm age, had been seen, but the 49-jurisdiction rates reported here had not been computed. No QWI value had been read. The protocol (wave 3 section) and its dated amendments are at https://kamyarshah.com/public-data-protocol/

Check. A second program, written separately from the registered definitions by a different author from the analysis code and run against the raw files without access to this study’s code or results, recomputed all three claim groups, covering every frame list, count and rate in the tables. Every figure in the tables and text was compared and matched. The programs, archived inputs, manifests and hashes are kept with the protocol record.

The agencies did not review or endorse this analysis. Kamyar Shah sells fractional COO and CMO services.

Questions about this analysis can be sent through https://kamyarshah.com/contact/.

The Census Bureau’s Quarterly Workforce Indicators (QWI) are built from state unemployment insurance wage records linked to Census business data. They count jobs that start and end each quarter. Census defines a separation as follows: “A separation is indicated when a job is present in one quarter, but is not present in the following quarter.” Census also notes that “Voluntary separations (retirement, new job) and involuntary separations (layoff, firing) cannot be separately identified.” This article therefore says “separations,” not “quits” or “turnover.”

Firm age is a property of the whole firm, measured nationally. Census explains: “Firm age and size are defined at the national level, rather than the state level. A national firm may frequently be larger or older than the part of that firm found in any one state.” Firm age is reported for private-sector firms only.

Separation rates by firm age

Census defines the separation rate as “All separations as a percent of average employment,” where average employment is the average of jobs at the start and end of the quarter. Means of four quarterly rates, private sector, all industries, both sexes, all worker ages, not seasonally adjusted:

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, LEHD Quarterly Workforce Indicators, national files by firm age, release R2026Q3, downloaded October 3, 2026. The 2017 to 2019 column is the mean of 12 quarters. Hire rate is all hires as a percent of average employment.

Separation rates fall at each step of firm age in both periods, and all five were lower in the recent window than before the pandemic.

The registered comparison: firms aged 0 to 1 against firms aged 11 or more

The study set one comparison in advance: the separation rate at firms aged 0 to 1 year minus the rate at firms aged 11 or more, averaged over the latest four quarters, at or before 2025Q3, in which every value used had a QWI status of 1 or 6.

The difference was positive in all four quarters. Over the 12 quarters of 2017 to 2019 it averaged 17.3 percentage points. A pooled version, summing separations and average employment across the four quarters before dividing, gives 30.5% and 14.5%, the same 16.0-point difference.

QWI values are protected with noise. Census describes it this way: “all released data are ‘fuzzed.'” Every value carries a status flag, and this analysis used only values with status 1 (OK) or 6 (calculated from other released measures, no significant distortion). Census publishes no sampling error or other margin of error for QWI, and a covariance-aware interval for this difference is not available from the public tables. No statistical significance is claimed, and QWI values can be revised in later releases.

What the separation measure includes, and what it does not separate

A separation here is any job that ended, whatever the reason. When a firm closes, all of its jobs end, and those jobs are counted with quits and layoffs. QWI does not show how much of any firm-age class’s rate comes from closures. Firms aged 0 to 1 also had a higher hire rate than separation rate in the recent window: 41.4 hires and 30.5 separations per 100 jobs per quarter. The table does not adjust for industry, location or worker mix, so nothing in it says that firm age itself causes the difference.

The rate of separations from stable jobs, those that had lasted at least a full quarter, follows the same order: 13.5% at firms aged 0 to 1, 12.9% at 2 to 3, 12.4% at 4 to 5, 11.6% at 6 to 10, and 8.3% at 11 or more, in the recent window. The gap between the youngest and oldest firms is smaller on this measure: 5.2 percentage points, against 16.0 for all separations. The two rates use different denominators, so this comparison is descriptive and does not show how much of the all-jobs gap comes from jobs that never reached a full quarter.

What the numbers mean for an operator

These are descriptive aggregates for the stated federal-data population. They do not identify causal effects, diagnose an individual company, or estimate the result of adopting a practice. The guidance that follows is operating judgment, not a finding from the data.

A company aged 0 to 1 year is operating where, on average, almost a third of jobs end every quarter. Some of that is the company finding its shape, and some of it is cost: every job that ends early carries the cost of hiring, training and lost output, and young companies have the least slack to absorb it. The stable-job figures cannot show where the gap comes from, because the two rates use different denominators. As a matter of operating judgment, the first months of employment are still a practical place to start looking.

For an established firm, the useful number is not the national 14.5% but the firm’s own rate measured the same way. The national figure blends every industry and region.

How to handle it: protect the first ninety days

The steps below are an operating recommendation. This study did not test them, and the Census Bureau does not endorse them.

1. Measure separations the same way. Each quarter, count jobs that ended (for any reason) and divide by the average of headcount at the start and end of the quarter. Track jobs that ended within the first ninety days separately. In operating experience, that second number is often where a young company’s losses sit.

2. Write down the job before hiring for it. Early exits often come from a mismatch between what the role was described as and what it turned out to be. A one-page description of the outcomes expected in the first ninety days, agreed before the search, makes the hiring decision and the first review concrete.

3. Give every new hire an onboarding sequence. A written first-week plan, a named person to go to, and check-ins at thirty, sixty and ninety days. Young companies tend to skip this because they are busy, and that is when it matters most.

4. Separate the separations you chose from the ones you did not. Record whether each exit was the company’s decision or the employee’s, and the reason. QWI cannot make that distinction, but a company can, and the two call for different fixes.

5. Hire to a plan, not to a backlog. A young company that hires in bursts when work piles up, and lets people go when it slows, will show high separations whatever else it does. A twelve-month hiring plan tied to revenue is the operating answer to both.

What this data does not tell you

• It does not separate quits from layoffs or from jobs lost when firms close.
• It does not show why separation rates differ by firm age, or that any practice lowers them.
• Firm age is the age of the national firm, not of a local workplace, and not the worker’s age.
• QWI is noise-protected administrative data with no published sampling error, and values can be revised.
• It is a different source from the federal job openings and turnover survey, and this analysis does not compare its figures numerically with that survey.

Method

Already published by the agency: Census publishes QWI separation, hire and stable-separation rates by firm age every quarter. New here: four-quarter and pre-pandemic averages across all firm-age classes, the registered young-versus-established comparison quarter by quarter, and the stable-job comparison.

Source. U.S. Census Bureau, LEHD Quarterly Workforce Indicators, national firm-age files (rates and counts), release R2026Q3, data through 2025Q3, downloaded October 3, 2026. Selection: private ownership, all industries, both sexes, all worker ages, not seasonally adjusted.

Window rule. The current window is the latest four quarters, at or before 2025Q3, in which every value used had a status of 1 (OK) or 6 (calculated from other released measures, no significant distortion). That was 2024Q3 to 2025Q2. Values with any other status are treated as missing, never as zero. The baseline is 2017Q1 to 2019Q4.

Protocol. The comparison, the window rule and the baseline were fixed in a dated protocol before any rate was computed. The protocol (wave 2 section, frozen October 4, 2026) and its dated amendments are at https://kamyarshah.com/public-data-protocol/

Check. All figures were recomputed from the raw files by a separately written program, built without access to this study’s results. As a second check, the same rates were rebuilt by adding up state-level counts for the 48 states and the District of Columbia that the Census data service returned for each of these quarters. Alaska and Michigan returned no data, so this is a partial check rather than a national reconstruction. The quarterly differences from that rebuild (16.4, 15.8, 16.0 and 15.4 points) agree with the national file to within 0.1 point.

The agencies did not review or endorse this analysis. Kamyar Shah sells fractional COO and CMO services.

Questions about this analysis can be sent through https://kamyarshah.com/contact/.

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