Two Census programs describe what happens to jobs at the youngest firms, and this article reports their 2023 measures side by side. The Quarterly Workforce Indicators count separations when a job present in one quarter is absent in the next. The Business Dynamics Statistics count jobs that disappeared because an establishment shrank or closed. For firms aged 0 to 1 year in 2023, on the same 48 states plus the District of Columbia, the QWI data yield 129 separations for every 100 average beginning-of-quarter jobs, with separations summed over the four quarters of the year. The BDS data yield 17 jobs destroyed per 100 jobs on the Census annual denominator, of which about 10 per 100 denominator jobs went with closing establishments. Both rates were calculated for this analysis from the published counts. At firms aged 11 or more the three figures were 64, 11 and 3. The article does not subtract one measure from the other: they count different events on different bases, and the gap between them is not a number with a meaning.
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Two counts of the same year
Two Census programs offer different measures related to job endings and employment contraction at young firms.
The Quarterly Workforce Indicators (QWI) are built from state unemployment insurance wage records. They count jobs, quarter by quarter, and record a separation whenever a job present in one quarter is absent in the next. Census defines it exactly: “A separation is indicated when a job is present in one quarter, but is not present in the following quarter.” It also warns what the count cannot do: “Voluntary separations (retirement, new job) and involuntary separations (layoff, firing) cannot be separately identified.”
The Business Dynamics Statistics (BDS) are the Census program used here for job destruction and jobs lost at closing establishments. They count jobs lost from contracting and closing establishments during the last 12 months. Census defines the measure as “Job destruction is the sum of all employment losses from contracting establishments from year t–1 to year t including establishments shutting down.” The data service labels the subset from closures as “Number of jobs lost from closing establishments during the last 12 months”.
Both programs classify by firm age. In the BDS, “The age of the parent firm is based on the age of the oldest establishment in the firm, in the year the firm came into existence, and does not change in subsequent years as a result of establishment entry or exit.” In the QWI, “Firm age and size are defined at the national level, rather than the state level.” This study takes the youngest group each program offers that lines up with the other: QWI firm age 0 to 1 years, and BDS ages 0 and 1 combined.
The registered side-by-side
All industries, private employers, QWI quarters 1 to 4 of 2023 and BDS data year 2023, covering 48 states and the District of Columbia (every jurisdiction for which both programs returned usable figures, since Alaska and Michigan returned no QWI data).
| Firm age | QWI separations in 2023, per 100 beginning-of-quarter jobs | BDS jobs destroyed in 2023, per 100 jobs on the Census annual denominator | BDS jobs lost to closures in 2023, per 100 jobs on the Census annual denominator |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 to 1 year | 129.4 | 16.9 | 9.5 |
| 11 years or more | 64.2 | 11.4 | 3.4 |
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Quarterly Workforce Indicators, state files, 2023 Q1 to Q4, private ownership, all industries, not seasonally adjusted, firm age groups 1 and 5. Business Dynamics Statistics, state by firm age, 2023, age codes 0 years, 1 year and 11+ years. Both retrieved from the Census data service on October 4, 2026 and archived before the protocol was frozen.
The QWI rate is the year’s separations (5,212,670 at firms aged 0 to 1) divided by the average over the four quarters of jobs held at the start of a quarter (4,027,491). It can exceed 100 without any error in the data, because the numerator is an annual count of separations and the denominator is the average beginning-of-quarter job count. The BDS rate is jobs destroyed (611,207) divided by the Census denominator for the age group (3,625,836), which is the average of employment in the current and prior year. Of those destroyed jobs, 345,091 were at establishments that closed.
Nothing is subtracted. The two rates count different events (a worker-job relationship ending, as against gross year-to-year employment loss at contracting and closing establishments), on different denominators (average beginning-of-quarter employment, as against average current- and prior-year employment), with different timing (the quarter a job ended, as against a year-to-year comparison), and with firm age set on different program schedules (QWI reports its 0 to 1 group for each quarter, while BDS determines firm age annually from the year the firm came into existence, using the age of its oldest establishment), so matching the calendar year, the age labels and the jurisdictions does not make the two observations one cohort. There is also a known asymmetry between them: QWI separations are built from unemployment insurance wage records and can be unobserved for a firm’s final quarter, so observed QWI separations at exiting firms may be understated, while BDS job destruction from deaths is designed to include employment losses from closing establishments. That affects how the two columns should be read beside each other. It does not make them parts of one total, and no remainder between them is reported here.
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By sector
The same three measures by sector appear below for firms aged 0 to 1 and, as the prespecified contrast, for firms aged 11 years or more. Each row uses the jurisdictions where QWI returned usable figures for that sector in every quarter and BDS returned the matching annual cells. Sectors with fewer than 40 jurisdictions are marked as limited coverage.
| Sector (NAICS) | Jurisdictions | QWI separations per 100 beginning-of-quarter jobs | BDS jobs destroyed per 100 jobs on the Census annual denominator | BDS jobs lost to closures per 100 jobs on the Census annual denominator |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting (11) | 48 | 266.8 | 22.6 | 12.8 |
| Finance and insurance (52) | 49 | 244.0 | 20.7 | 11.5 |
| Administrative, support and waste services (56) | 49 | 179.7 | 19.6 | 10.2 |
| Accommodation and food services (72) | 49 | 171.8 | 15.7 | 7.1 |
| Transportation and warehousing (48-49) | 49 | 148.2 | 21.9 | 15.8 |
| Arts, entertainment and recreation (71) | 49 | 145.4 | 17.1 | 9.1 |
| Construction (23) | 49 | 116.6 | 18.7 | 12.2 |
| Retail trade (44-45) | 49 | 109.4 | 16.6 | 9.3 |
| Educational services (61) | 49 | 107.5 | 13.5 | 8.6 |
| Mining (21), limited coverage | 32 | 105.2 | 14.6 | 6.3 |
| Other services (81) | 49 | 102.4 | 16.7 | 10.6 |
| Professional, scientific and technical services (54) | 49 | 100.4 | 17.8 | 11.1 |
| Utilities (22), limited coverage | 27 | 99.7 | 14.6 | 5.0 |
| Information (51) | 49 | 96.0 | 23.6 | 11.6 |
| Health care and social assistance (62) | 49 | 93.1 | 12.0 | 6.7 |
| Real estate and rental and leasing (53) | 49 | 90.4 | 21.1 | 14.3 |
| Manufacturing (31-33) | 49 | 81.9 | 14.2 | 7.0 |
| Wholesale trade (42) | 49 | 78.0 | 17.1 | 10.9 |
| Management of companies (55) | 42 | 78.0 | 38.8 | 14.1 |
| All industries | 49 | 129.4 | 16.9 | 9.5 |
Firms aged 11 years or more, by sector, on the same construction. Where a sector’s jurisdiction count differs between the two age tables (mining 32 against 48, utilities 27 against 49, management of companies 42 against 49), the two age rows rest on different jurisdiction sets and are not comparable with each other across age. The all-industries rows and every sector at the same count in both tables are on the same set.
| Sector (NAICS) | Jurisdictions | QWI separations per 100 beginning-of-quarter jobs | BDS jobs destroyed per 100 jobs on the Census annual denominator | BDS jobs lost to closures per 100 jobs on the Census annual denominator |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Administrative, support and waste services (56) | 49 | 137.7 | 14.2 | 3.6 |
| Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting (11) | 48 | 133.7 | 13.5 | 3.9 |
| Accommodation and food services (72) | 49 | 109.7 | 10.9 | 3.9 |
| Arts, entertainment and recreation (71) | 49 | 106.6 | 9.1 | 2.5 |
| Retail trade (44-45) | 49 | 75.0 | 10.9 | 2.7 |
| Transportation and warehousing (48-49) | 49 | 72.3 | 10.6 | 3.0 |
| Construction (23) | 49 | 67.4 | 12.5 | 3.3 |
| Other services (81) | 49 | 59.9 | 10.9 | 3.4 |
| Educational services (61) | 49 | 56.5 | 6.6 | 1.9 |
| Information (51) | 49 | 53.2 | 11.7 | 4.2 |
| Real estate and rental and leasing (53) | 49 | 48.8 | 12.8 | 4.4 |
| Mining (21) | 48 | 48.2 | 8.8 | 3.7 |
| Health care and social assistance (62) | 49 | 46.9 | 9.7 | 3.1 |
| Professional, scientific and technical services (54) | 49 | 42.9 | 12.8 | 4.4 |
| Manufacturing (31-33) | 49 | 38.5 | 9.0 | 2.2 |
| Wholesale trade (42) | 49 | 37.7 | 10.2 | 3.4 |
| Management of companies (55) | 49 | 37.4 | 12.2 | 3.2 |
| Finance and insurance (52) | 49 | 28.9 | 17.8 | 4.9 |
| Utilities (22) | 49 | 18.1 | 9.3 | 1.7 |
| All industries | 49 | 64.2 | 11.4 | 3.4 |
The sector columns do not move together. Information had one of the lower QWI separation rates, at 96.0 separations per 100 beginning-of-quarter jobs, and the second-highest BDS job destruction rate, at 23.6 jobs destroyed per 100 jobs on the Census annual denominator, behind only management of companies. Finance and insurance had the second-highest QWI separation rate, at 244.0 separations per 100 beginning-of-quarter jobs, and the sixth-highest BDS job destruction rate, at 20.7 jobs destroyed per 100 jobs on the Census annual denominator. A reader looking for the sectors where young firms “churn the most” will get a different list from each column, which is the point of showing both.
What the numbers mean for an operator
These are descriptive aggregates for the stated federal-data population. They do not identify causal effects, diagnose an individual company, or estimate the result of adopting a practice. The guidance that follows is operating judgment, not a finding from the data.
For an operator, the two 49-jurisdiction aggregate figures identify different things to monitor. QWI records worker-job separations of every kind, which it cannot sort into quits, layoffs, firings or exit-related losses. BDS records gross year-to-year employment losses at establishments that contracted or closed. In the BDS aggregate, job destruction equaled about 17 per 100 jobs on the Census annual denominator, and more than half of that was at establishments that closed. As operating judgment, the first figure points at hiring and retention, which an owner can measure monthly, and the second at survival and sizing, which an owner can also track internally. The data cannot say how much of the first is connected to the second, and this article does not estimate it.
How to handle it: keep two ledgers
The steps below are an operating recommendation. This study did not test them, and the Census Bureau does not endorse them.
1. Track worker-job endings and establishment employment reductions separately. Record worker-job endings throughout the year and, separately, compare establishment employment over a consistent annual period. The first is an internal counterpart to QWI separations, and the second is an internal counterpart to BDS job destruction. Neither internal count is the federal measure, and a company that tracks only period-end headcount sees neither clearly.
2. Use 129.4 as aggregate context, not a company forecast. Across firms aged 0 to 1 in the 49-jurisdiction frame, annual QWI separations equaled 129.4 per 100 average beginning-of-quarter jobs. The aggregate does not show what a particular company, or a firm in its first year alone, should expect. As operating judgment, a budget that assumes a stable team in the first two years is assuming something the aggregate does not show for young firms in general.
3. Read the sector column that matches the decision. For a hiring plan, the separations column. For a question about whether the business model is holding, the job destruction column. The two rank sectors differently, so the right comparison depends on the question.
4. Measure the first ninety days of each job. The QWI count includes jobs that started and ended inside a single quarter. Whether a company’s separations are concentrated there is something its own records can show and the public data cannot. Employment decisions, including terminations and reductions in force, carry legal obligations that vary by jurisdiction, so an owner should take them with qualified legal and HR advice.
What this data does not tell you
- It does not separate quits from layoffs or from jobs lost when firms close (QWI), and it does not say why an establishment contracted or closed (BDS).
- It does not show what share of separations came from job destruction. The two measures cannot be subtracted, and no such figure is reported here.
- Both are national firm-age classifications applied to state records, and the sector tables cover different jurisdiction sets.
- QWI values are protected with noise and carry status flags. Only values flagged 1 (OK) or 6 (calculated from other released measures, no significant distortion) were used, and Census publishes no sampling error for either program.
- QWI separations can be unobserved in a firm’s final quarter, so separations at exiting firms may be undercounted.
Method
Already published by the agency: Census publishes QWI separations and employment by firm age and state every quarter, and BDS job destruction, job destruction from deaths and the denominator by firm age, state and sector every year. New here: the two programs built on matched jurisdiction frames for one year (one 49-jurisdiction frame for all industries, a complete-case frame for each sector) and reported beside each other at firms aged 0 to 1 and 11 or more.
Sources. U.S. Census Bureau, Quarterly Workforce Indicators via the Census data service (qwi/sa), 2023 quarters 1 to 4, private ownership (A05), all industries and each two-digit sector, firm age groups 1 (“0-1 Years”) and 5 (“11+ Years”), not seasonally adjusted, indicators Emp (“Beginning-of-Quarter Employment: Counts”) and Sep (“Separations: Counts”) with their status flags. U.S. Census Bureau, Business Dynamics Statistics via the Census data service, 2023, state by firm age and state by sector by firm age, age codes 010 (“0 years”), 020 (“1 year”) and 075 (“11+ years”), variables JOB_DESTRUCTION, JOB_DESTRUCTION_DEATHS and DENOM. All responses retrieved October 4, 2026 and archived before the protocol was frozen.
Frames. A jurisdiction is in a frame when its four QWI cells for that age group and industry carry status 1 or 6 on both Emp and Sep, and its BDS row(s) carry the three variables. The all-industries frame is 49 jurisdictions: every state except Alaska and Michigan, plus the District of Columbia. Each sector has its own frame, with counts in the table. Sectors at 49 use that same set. For firms aged 0 to 1, agriculture lacks the District of Columbia (48). Mining (32) lacks Connecticut, Delaware, the District of Columbia, Hawaii, Iowa, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Hampshire, New Jersey, North Carolina, Oregon, Rhode Island, South Dakota and Vermont. Utilities (27) lacks Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, the District of Columbia, Hawaii, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Maine, Mississippi, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Vermont, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin and Wyoming. Management of companies (42) lacks Delaware, Hawaii, New Mexico, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Vermont and Wyoming. For firms aged 11 or more, agriculture and mining lack the District of Columbia (48) and every other sector is at 49.
Rates. QWI: the sum of separations over four quarters and frame jurisdictions, divided by the mean over the four quarters of beginning-of-quarter employment summed over the frame, times 100. BDS: job destruction summed over frame jurisdictions and the age codes, divided by the summed denominator, times 100, and the same for job destruction from closures.
Protocol. The age mapping, frame rule, measures and the rule that no difference or ratio between the programs is computed were frozen in a dated protocol on October 4, 2026, after the source responses had been archived with hashes and before the registered quantities were computed. Before freezing, the QWI status flags and the Census API’s structure had been inspected, and national BDS rows by firm age, including 2023 national job destruction rates by firm age, had been seen, but the 49-jurisdiction rates reported here had not been computed. No QWI value had been read. The protocol (wave 3 section) and its dated amendments are at https://kamyarshah.com/public-data-protocol/
Check. A second program, written separately from the registered definitions by a different author from the analysis code and run against the raw files without access to this study’s code or results, recomputed all three claim groups, covering every frame list, count and rate in the tables. Every figure in the tables and text was compared and matched. The programs, archived inputs, manifests and hashes are kept with the protocol record.
The agencies did not review or endorse this analysis. Kamyar Shah sells fractional COO and CMO services.
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